Natural environment

Climate change impacts on the natural environment in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR)

In history, the ecosystems in the natural environment have showed capacity to adapt to climatic changes, although, the nature has never experienced as large of a human pressure as it currently does (IPCC, 2007a). In the 21st century the ecosystems’ ability to adapt naturally could possibly be exceeded with disturbances related to climate change and other global change drivers (ibid).

Some important impacts of climate change on the natural environment are emphasized in this section. For instance, the biodiversity in Europe is projected to change by the means of some species disappearing, but also by new species appearing (EEA, 2008). The net primary production and soil organic carbon in the BSR are expected to vary with climate change. The net primary production is generally expected to increase over the region (Fronzek and Carter, 2007) but the soil organic carbon in crop- and grasslands is expected to have a more varied change (Smith et al., 2005). This section also points out the direct effects of climate change on soil movements with evaluations of future risks in Sweden (Fallsvik et al., 2007).

The summary of the impacts on natural environment are presented in Table 1. For further details about the each subsection and specific studies, click on the links below the table. For tips on how to interpret the information in the table see the Swedish example on the right.

Table 1. Climate change impacts on natural environment in the BalticClimate countries – a summary of general outlooks for the found impact scenarios interpreted from different scientific studies
(↑↑ Considerable increase; ↑ Slight increase; ↓↓ Considerable decrease; ↓ Slight decrease; ○ No or insignificant change; ~ Outcome very uncertain; ~↑ Outcome uncertain, increase tendency; ~↓ Outcome uncertain, decrease tendency; ─ Not included in the analysis) 

For examples of impact scenarios reviewed from different scientific papers/reports, see the following subsections:

• Plant biodiversity (new species appearing and species disappearing) (Europe)
• Distribution of reptiles and amphibians (Europe)
• Soil and ground (erosion propensity, ravine formation, landslide and mud flow risk) (Sweden)
• Organic carbon (Europe, excluding the Baltic countries)

Plant biodiversity (Europe)

Projected changes in the number of plant species were broached in the EEA (2008) report based on a study performed by Bakkenes et al. (2006). Bakkenes et al. (2006) used indicators similar to the natural capital index in their assessment of biodiversity. The indicators of the natural capital index reflect trends in distribution of species. The Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) was used for the analysis. IMAGE was used in combination with the EUROMOVE model which is an ecological model for vegetation in Europe. The impact modelling was based on the HadCM2 A2 climate scenario.

The plant biodiversity is projected to change in two ways with climate change: plant species disappearing and plant species appearing. All of the countries in the BSR, except Germany, have a generally small number of plant species that are projected to disappear compared to the rest of Europe (Figure 1). For some regions in the BSR, no species are projected to disappear, whereas for other regions 1-50 species are projected to disappear. Germany is anticipated to have even more plant species disappearing, ranging from 1 to >200 species, varying with location.

The number of plant species appearing is high in Sweden and Finland, compared to many other regions in Europe; ranging from 1 to 200 new species, varying with location. The other BSR countries are simulated to have 1 to 150 new species also varying with location. There are great variations of anticipated new plant species in BSR, areas simulated to have 1-25 new species are although most common. A general projection of future plant biodiversity in the BSR is illustrated in Table 2 and Table 3, interpreted from the results in EEA (2008).

Figure 1. Projected changes in number of plant species in 2050 compared to reference year 2000, based on HadCM2 A2 climate scenario (Map 5.30 in EEA (2008) based on Bakkenes et al. 2006) (click to enlarge)

Table 2. General outlook for new plant species appearing in the BSR
(↑↑ Considerable increase; ↑ Slight increase; ─ Not included in the analysis)

Table 3. General outlook for plant species disappearing in the BSR
(↑↑ Considerable increase; ↑ Slight increase; ─ Not included in the analysis)

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Distribution of reptiles and amphibians (Europe)

The EEA (2008) report includes modelling results of climate change impacts on reptiles and amphibians in Europe, based on Araújo et al. (2006). The species’ future distribution was modelled by Araújo et al. (2006) by using four methods; generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM), classification tree analysis (CTA) and feed-forward artificial neural networks (ANN). The projections in Figure 2 are based on the HadCM3 SRES A2 climate scenario.

Figure 2 presents the current number of species and the percentage of stable species in 2050. The BSR is in general estimated to have 80 to 100% of stable amount of species in 2050. However, some northern regions of Sweden and Finland are projected to have 60 to 80% stable amount of species. 

Figure 2. Projected impact of climate change on reptiles and amphibians distribution in 2050 compared to the current situation (Map 5.31 in EEA (2008), source: Bakkenes, 2007, based on Araújo et al. 2006) (click to enlarge)

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Soil and ground (Sweden)

Fallsvik et al. (2007) have studied the future projections of erosion, ravine formation, landslide and mud flows for Sweden 2071-2100 compared to the reference period 1961-1990 (RCA0/RCA3 based on ECHAM4 A2). The HBV model was used for the discharge calculations. The analysis was only performed for areas vulnerable to erosion, ravine formation, landslide and mud flows. A general projection of future erosion-, ravine formation-, landslide- and mud flow risk in Sweden is illustrated in Table 4, Table 5, Table 6 and Table 7, interpreted from the results in Fallsvik et al. (2007).

The erosion risk will change in many of the analyzed areas. Increased erosion risk is simulated for the south west coast and parts of the north east coast. In some regions in eastern Sweden the erosion risk is projected to decrease.

Table 4. General outlook for erosion propensity
(↑ Slight increase; ↓ Slight decrease; ─ Not included in the analysis)

The estimated change of ravine formation showed the same tendency as erosion, namely, the south west coast and the north east coast are projected to have increased risk of ravine formation.

Table 5. General outlook for ravine formation
(↑ Slight increase; ↓ Slight decrease; ─ Not included in the analysis)

The landslide risk is projected to increase for almost all of the analyzed areas apart from a few regions in eastern Sweden where risk is projected to decrease or to be unchanged.

Table 6. General outlook for landslide risk
(↑ Slight increase; ─ Not included in the analysis)

The risk of mud flow is projected to increase in the north western half of Sweden; more than half of the analyzed area is projected to have increased mud flow risk.

Table 7. General outlook for risk of mud flow
(↑ Slight increase; ↓ Slight decrease; ─ Not included in the analysis)

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Organic carbon (Europe, excluding the Baltic countries)

Smith et al. (2005) assessed the future changes in cropland and grassland’s soil organic carbon (SOC) based on HadCM3 A2 climate scenario. A dedicated process-based SOC model together with state-of-the-art databases of soil, climate change-, land use change- and technology change scenarios was used to assess future soil organic carbon in grassland and cropland. The Rothamsted carbon model was used for the calculations of soil carbon change on a European grid using climate change data from four global general circulation models implementing four SRES emission scenarios. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena model was used for calculations of net primary production (NPP). The land use change was interpreted from the SRES A2 scenario.

Sweden, Finland and Germany were, among other central and south European countries, included in this study. The result showed that Swedish and Finish croplands are projected to have a varied change in soil organic carbon over the region (Figure 3). The northern parts are expected to have the highest shrink, with some regions of 10-15 ton decreased carbon per hectare. The soil organic carbon is estimated to increase around 10 ton carbon per hectare in the southern parts of Sweden and Finland. The croplands in Germany are estimated to have increased soil organic carbon for almost all regions, although, a very small fraction in the east is estimated to have decreased soil organic carbon. The change in Germany is varying with location, ranging from -2 to >20 ton carbon per hectare. A general projection of future soil organic carbon in the BSR is illustrated in Table 8 and Table 9, interpreted from the results in Smith et al. (2005).

Figure 3. Difference in mean soil organic carbon stocks 2080 compared to 1990 for cropland, effects of climate change, NPP and technology (Fig. 7c in Smith et al. (2005))

Table 8. General outlook for soil organic carbon in croplands
(↑↑ Considerable increase; ↑ Slight increase; ↓↓ Considerable decrease; ─ Not included in the analysis)

The estimated change in soil organic carbon for grasslands indicate that all analyzed regions in Sweden, Finland and Germany will have increased soil organic carbon in the future except for eastern Finland (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Difference in mean soil organic carbon stocks 2080 compared to 1990 for grassland, effects of climate change, NPP and technology (Fig. 7d in Smith et al. (2005))

Table 9. General outlook for soil organic carbon in grasslands
(↑↑ Considerable increase; ↓ Slight decrease; ─ Not included in the analysis)

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