Climate change impacts on human health in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR)

Globally, climate change is contributing to diseases and premature death both directly and indirectly. The direct effects are projected to be related to, for example, more intense and frequent extreme weather events and the indirect effects are related to, for instance, changes in water, air, food quality and quantity (IPCC, 2007a). Currently, the effects of climate change on health are small, but they are expected to increase with time in all countries and regions (ibid). The negative health effects of climate change are estimated to be greatest in low income developing countries (ibid). Although most studies are done for these countries some studies of climate change impacts related to health were found for European regions as well. The studies concerns air quality changes (Giorgi and Meleux, 2007), direct effect of warmer temperatures on mortality (Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability, 2007) and effects on labour productivity (Kjellstrom et al., 2009).

The summary of the impacts on health are presented in Table 1. For further details about the each subsection and specific studies, click on the links below the table. For tips on how to interpret the information in the table see the Swedish example on the right.

Table 1. Climate change impacts on human health in the BalticClimate countries – a summary of general outlooks for the found impact scenarios from different scientific studies
(↑↑ Considerable increase; ↑ Slight increase; ↓↓ Considerable decrease; ↓ Slight decrease; ○ No or insignificant change; ~ Outcome very uncertain; ~↑ Outcome uncertain, increase tendency; ~↓ Outcome uncertain, decrease tendency; ─ Not included in the analysis) 

Climate change impacts on:

SWE

FIN

EST

LAT

LIT

RU

GER

Surface nitrogen oxides
Surface ozone In North ↑, in South ↑↑   

For examples of impact scenarios reviewed from different scientific papers/reports, see the following subsections:

Air quality (surface nitrogen oxides and surface ozone) (Europe, excluding Scandinavia)
Mortality (Sweden)
Labour productivity (Global)

 

Air quality (Europe, excluding Scandinavia)

Chemical and meteorological factors, such as wind, temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, affect the life cycles of pollutants. Consequently, climate change is expected to have impacts on air quality. The changed air quality due to effects of climate change was investigated by Giorgi and Meleux (2007). The RegCM regional climate model was used to simulate the current (1961-1990) conditions and future (2071-2100) SRES A2 and B2 climate scenarios. CHIMERE is the regional chemistry and transport model (CTM) used for the projections of future near surface nitrogen oxides (NOx) (Figure 1) and near surface ozone (Figure 2).

The concentration of near surface nitrogen oxides in Germany, southern Sweden, western Latvia and western Lithuania is not projected to change much. Germany is the one of those countries to have the highest projected increase, about 1-2 ppb, in some regions. The other areas of the BSR mainland are in the future projected to have the same concentration as the baseline or an increase of 0-1 ppb. A general projection of near surface nitrogen oxides in the BSR is illustrated in Table 2, interpreted from the results in Giorgi and Meleux (2007).

 


Figure 1. Change in summer near-surface NOx (ppb), daily averaged concentration of the A2 2071–2100 period related to current time (1961–1990) simulations
. (This figure and article was published in C. R. Geoscience, 339, Giorgi, F., Meleux, F., Modelling the regional effects of climate change on air quality, 721–733, Copyright Elsevier (2007))

Table 2. General outlook for near-surface nitrogen oxides
(↑ Slight increase; ○ No or insignificant change; ─ Not included in the analysis)

  SWE FIN EST LAT LIT RU GER
Change

The near surface ozone is according to the simulations expected to increase in all of Germany, with the highest increase in south and especially south-west (5-9 ppb) and a lower increase in northern Germany 2-4 ppb. The surface ozone in southern Sweden, eastern Latvia and eastern Lithuania are not projected to change particularly; increase about 0-1 ppb. A general projection of near surface ozone in the BSR is illustrated in Table 3, interpreted from the results in Giorgi and Meleux (2007).

 

Figure 2. Change in summer near-surface ozone (ppb), daily averaged concentration of the A2 2071–2100 period related to current time (1961–1990) simulations. (This figure and article was published in C. R. Geoscience, 339, Giorgi, F., Meleux, F., Modelling the regional effects of climate change on air quality, 721–733, Copyright Elsevier (2007))

Table 3. General outlook for near-surface ozone
(↑↑ Considerable increase; ↑ Slight increase; ○ No or insignificant change; ─ Not included in the analysis)

  SWE FIN EST LAT LIT RU GER
Change In North ↑, In South: ↑↑ 

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Mortality (Sweden)

The Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability (2007) presented results of climate change effects on mortality. The study only considered climate change as higher temperatures. The calculations were based on temperature and mortality relationships studied by Rocklöv and Forsberg (2007) for the Stockholm region. The relationship of temperature and mortality is in Table 4 coupled to SRES A2 and B2 climate scenarios. The mortality in the Stockholm region due to higher temperatures is expected to be 3.8 to 5.3% higher in 2100 compared to 1998-2003.

Table 4. Increased mortality in the region of Stockholm, Sweden, due to increased summer temperatures. Results of the 21st century (based on SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios) compared to 1998-2003 (Reconstruction of Table 4.35 in the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability (2007))

Temperature increase Increase in mortality Increase in mortality Scenario A2 Scenario B2
Degree Celsius Number %    
1 29 1,3 2025-2040 2025-2040
2 60 2,4 2060-2070 2080-2090
3 94 3,8 2090 2100
4 131 5,3 2100 -


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Labour productivity (Global)

Climate change can lead to increased work related heat exposure which in turn may have impacts on labour productivity and costs, unless deterrent measures are implemented. A study by Kjellstrom et al. (2009) indicated that it is likely for labour productivity to decrease with climate change in many regions of the world. They estimated the impact of two climate scenarios on labour productivity in relation to physiological evidence about effects of heat.

The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) was a measure used to quantify the levels of heat stress, it defines the percentage of a usual working hour that a person can work and maintain a core body temperature below 38 °C, supposed that the remaining time is rest. The WBGT combined with global climate data for different regions of the world was used to calculate the population change in work capacity for future climate scenarios. The global climate data were on a daily basis for the 1960-2100 period from the HadCM3 model and based on emission scenario A2 and B2. It was assumed that variation in labour productivity equals variation in work capacity, an economic and physiological concept respectively.

The result showed that the BSR has no or a very little change in labour productivity due to climate change. The percentage of work days lost, relative to baseline, for the 20s 50s and 80s and for the two climate scenarios range between -0.5 to 0% for the Eastern- and Western Europe. This can be compared to 11 to 27% loss of labour work capacity projected for Southeast Asia, Andean and Central America, and the Caribbean in the 2080s under the A2 climate scenario. 

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