The impact scenarios have been divided into seven sectoral themes:

» Agriculture
» Energy
» Housing and water
» Overall economy
» Forestry
» Health
» Natural environment

The general findings of the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) climate change impact scenarios are summarized in Table 1. The compilation of impact scenarios included in this toolkit together provide a broad image of how the BSR possibly will be affected by climate change for a wide range of aspects.

The reviewed studies are on different spatial scales: local, regional or global. Consequently, in some studies all BSR countries were included but in other studies only one of the BSR countries was included. 

For almost all impact scenarios a table is inserted to demonstrate a general overview for the BSR (see the sectors below). The information in the tables was interpreted from the original maps, graphs, or tables. The prospects for each of the ‘BalticClimate’ countries are included in the outlook tables (SWE - Sweden, FIN - Finland, EST - Estonia, LAT - Latvia, LIT - Lithuania, RU - Baltic area of Russia, GER - Germany). 

Table 1. Summary of climate change challenge and chance findings. General climate change impacts on sectors in the BSR


Possible challenges

Possible chances

Agriculture Impact scenarios indicate decreased average crop yield for southern BSR, especially for GER.   Enlarged areas suitable for soya bean and maize. The wheat yield is expected to increase in whole BSR, whereas average crop yield is projected to increase in northern BSR.
Energy Summer cooling-needs in BSR are generally projected to increase. Winter heating-needs are anticipated to decrease with climate change. Hydropower potential is projected to increase in SWE and FIN. Depending on scenario, wind energy potential is estimated to increase slightly or not at all.
Housing and water Property damage due to storm events is projected to increase in GER, other BSR countries are not included. Flood risk is anticipated to change. Greatly increased flood risk for FIN, but also in other BSR areas.  
Overall economy   Climate change is not expected to affect Europe’s GDP much, possibly, a slight increase. Conditions for summer tourism are projected to be better with climate change in BSR. 
Forestry Increased risk of forest fire in, generally, entire BSR. Considerable increased risk of forest damage due to forest events after bud burst and bark beetle attacks in BSR. Decreased net primary production in GER. Upward shift in forest composition in SWE and FIN. Increased net primary production in all of the BSR countries (except GER, where there is an expected decrease).  
Health Air quality could change with climate change. Near surface ozone is estimated to increase in some parts of Europe, especially GER. Other BSR countries are not anticipated to face considerable changes. Higher temperatures are projected to cause higher mortality rate even in northern Europe. Climate change is not expected to affect labour productivity much in BSR, however, in other parts of the world.       
Natural environment Changed species composition. Study of SWE shows increased risk for landslide, erosion, ravine formation and mud flow. Changed species composition. Increase in soil organic carbon in GER, but also in some parts of SWE and FIN (the only studied BSR countries).