The expert group members agreed that the world might follow a combined version of the scenarios A1 and B1 (SRES storylines). Accordingly it will also affect the development pattern over the next 30–50 years in Latvia and in the region of municipalities of Līgatne and Pārgauja. These patterns are summarized in Table 1.

Table 1. What will happen in Latvia and in the region in case of scenarios A1 and B1?

 

Latvia

Region

Comments

Land management

Slight increase

Slight increase

Increases in quality.

Population 

Stable

Slight increase

If the area is economically posperous and stable. Will be attractive for young people to return to.

Local employment

 

Slight increase

If policy supports local production or creates new workplaces and attracts investments.

Migration due to climate change to Latvia

Slight increase

Not affect

The area is small and it might be socially and culturally difficult for immigrants, therefore big cities, like Riga seem more likely to attract climate induced immigrants.

Development of environmentally friendly technologies

Slight increase

Slight increase

Can be implemented if necessary investments or funds are provided, but it is unlikely. The area is not industrial, small-scale solutions have already been applied.

Population concentration in cities

Slight increase

Exchange

The area might become a place for weekend homes and a place to get away from the lively city life.

Population equality

Slight increase

Stable

The area is not so populated, therefore people in need can be approached. 

Economic growth

Slight increase

Slight increase

Global and national economic growth will have a local impact. The most activity is seen in areas such as tourism, small-scale farming and organic agriculture.

Unemployment

Slight decrease

Slight decrease

If the sectors above are established and promoted, the unemployment rate will decrease.

Some additional comments about development patterns in the region

Economy: The experts agreed that the economy will improve in the next 30-50 years. However, there might be a new economic regression if national politics does not support the producers of local goods. The economy in the area, especially Ligatne, might be significantly influenced if the high speed highway is built by the mid 2030s as it is planned now. However, political instability and uncertainty makes it difficult to predict future economic development. Discussion group members agreed that tourism is extremely important for local development and might influence many other factors (employment, income, technological innovations, environmental awareness etc.) if it is developed. Political support and actions were mentioned many times as a driving force for economic growth of region. The priority should be given to local scale and microproduction (up to 5 people). 

The social dimension of change. The main conclusion was that equality exists and will continue exist. However, a growing population might change the situation and social dimension of the area. 

Demography. Experts predict that number of people in the area will increase in the next 30-50 years because many people have already understood that there is a future in rural development. However, the local policies have a large influence. If the business development environment does not have local policy support, the region might experience population migration to big cities. In other words, the area might become a nice place for a weekend or holiday home, but otherwise remains economically and socially passive. 

Technology. The location of the area limits the region`s possibilities for industrialization. The existence of Gaujas Nature Park in the territory requires the development of small, environmentally friendly, and local technologies.