Table 1. Challenges for public transport (PT) companies

 

2010

2011

2015

2020

2030

5

- Financing PT – subsidies and funding system concentrates on individual car mobility.

- Sinking buying power results in less PT demand.

- PT today cannot provide services for the requirements of the increasing mobility individualisation.

- Without a well organized PT system the area is not economically  competitive.

- PT has to be provided as service of general public interest. Due to demographic changes and less public funds, it might not be possible to provide PT in some areas in the future.

- Impacts of climate change on infrastructure, service, punctuality and quality of PT:
- technical adaptation of bus shelters, air conditions etc.,
- material of rail and road infrastructure.

- Shrinking population/ demographic change particularly in rural areas result in less PT demand.

4

- Competition between PT, bicycles and taxis/ not between individual car travelling and PT.

- Maintaining and improving quality standards in PT to gain new passengers.

- Due to rationalisation, the PT system is not capable and flexible enough to handle a rising number of passengers.

- Oil peak (uncertainty about exact time)/ pressure on companies to use new technologies.

 

3

Dependency on pupil transport (bus transport in rural areas) and insufficient services for non-pupils.

- New school law inducing more traffic (PT less efficient/ pupil transport taken away as economic basis of PT companies).

- Decreasing number of pupils and longer distance to school which have to be covered by PT companies.

 

 

2

- Accessibility to PT for handicapped persons.

- Big differences between cities and rural areas in supply and demand of PT.

- Lack of PT attractiveness for most people/ dominance of cars.

 

 

1

- Lack of compatibility between different forms of PT.

- High costs of alternative engine technologies (auto industry blocking innovations).

 

 

 

Table 2. Chances for public transport (PT) companies  

 

2010

2011

2015

2020

2030

5

- Financing PT (subsidies and pupil transport).

- Economic efficiency for companies and affordable services.

- Regional mobility strategies (fast rail traffic as the backbone with other PT connections to railway stations - a coordinated system of federal and regional trains and/or buses), attractive PT, extending supply.

- Oil peak and rising oil prices improving attractiveness of PT.

- Alternative forms of transportation (potential for rural areas).

- Also semi-private and self organized forms of PT.

- New kinds of engines (more cost efficient and better image / PT as trend setter).

4

- Comfort standards/ safety/ sustainability to increasing image of PT and new.

- Newly structured school system (all-day-schools) creates chances to reorganize pupil transport

- Increasing ecologic awareness.

- Changing mobility behaviour leading to chances for PT → chances for PT companies as widespread mobility service provider (train, bus, taxi, alternative forms, information technology).

- Climate change impacts leading to rising number of tourists (potential PT user) and selective moving in of e.g. older people into the area (Baltic Sea).

3

- Health awareness leading to increased bicycle usage.

- Providing  manageable and more flexible services.

- Combined forms of transport (persons and goods) new role of PT.

 

- Demographic change and chances for new forms of PT “mobile older people”.

2

- Image activities. Attractive services for pupils. Children are the PT users of the future.

- Using new communication technologies.

- Increasing importance of climate change in public discussion.

 

- Cars as status symbol decreasing (in particular in cities).

1

- “Using PT is climate protection”.

 

- Increasing number of long distance bus connections between bigger cities as alternative for rail connections.

 

- Climate change impacts leading to less frost damage in infrastructure.

The output also contained assessment of the challenges and chances.