|1. Introduction||4. Output|
|2. Aim||5. Material and preparation|
|3. Input data||6. Exercise instructions|
This exercise uses the summary characteristics of the socio-economic scenarios contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report: Emissions’ Scenarios (SRES) (IPCC, 2000) as a basis for discussing how the Process Team participants think the future world will be and how they think this will affect their local area and economic sector or activity.
The summary characteristics of the storylines of the four SRES socio-economic scenarios in terms of world development pattern, economic growth, population and technology change are contained in Figure 1. These scenarios are used as a basis for estimating the future GHG emissions from society and thus are a vital input for the models that are used to generate scenarios of climate change and, consequently, the impacts on socio-economic and natural systems.
This exercise aims to select one plausible locally adapted socio-economic scenario, that is, a coherent picture of how you think future society might look in your local area or economic sector or activity, and what the likely climate policy to be exercised in such a society will be. There are many possibilities of how the future might look, but the group should aim to select one that they can agree upon and use as a base in your future work.
One locally adapted socio-economic scenario, including the major drivers of change and future climate policy elements for the period 30—50 years from now. Your locally adapted socio-economic scenario will be used to analyze sensitivity in Exercise IV and in the overall vulnerability assessment.
If you want to learn more, see IPCC, 2000 and Parry et al., 2004.
- Flipchart sized version of Figure 1: summary characteristics of scenarios and one A4 for each of the scenarios.
- Flipchart sized version of your challenges and chances chart from Inventory Exercise C - Challenges and chances generated by climate change.
- Printouts of local maps (if you wish to use maps to guide your discussion).
- The Process Leader should learn the basic structure of the four socio-economic scenarios.
Figure 1. Summary characteristics of the four SRES storylines (IPCC, 2007a)
- The Process Leader presents the aim and output of the exercise.
- The Process Leader presents the four storylines (Figure 1) on flipchart sized sheets and explains why socio-economic scenarios are used in climate work. Work with one rather loosely defined time perspective of 30 to 50 years from now.
- The Process Leader presents the challenges and chances charts that the Process Team created during Introductory Exercise C - Challenges and chances generated by climate change.
- The group discusses whether the summary characteristics of each of the socioeconomic scenarios seem plausible for how the world will be in the future. Discuss the possible directions of global change.
- Will there be more or less inequality in the world?
- What will be the major drivers of change?
- Will environmental or economic change be the most influential?
- Will there be more power at the global or regional level or will there be more autonomous local communities?
- The group selects the scenario that it thinks is the most plausible for the world.
- The change at the global level will probably be unevenly scattered between regions. Now discuss how you think your local area will develop over the next 30 to 50 years, provided that the world evolves according to the scenario you just selected. What would be the specific challenges and chances facing your local area?
- The scenarios do not include any effects of climate policy. Tougher climate policies will result in lower GHG emissions and thus less significant climate change impacts and vice versa. Discuss how you think climate policy will evolve at the global, EU, and national levels over the next 30 to 50 years generally or specifically for your economic sectors or activities. Use coarse categories such as: strict carbon taxes, global emissions trading, significant financial resources for mitigation and adaptation, low technology transfer, more dependence on fossil fuels and nuclear energy or low degree of collaboration at global level.
- Locally adapted socio-economic scenario. The last part of the exercise aims at summarizing what the major drivers of change (economic, environmental, social, demographic, technology drivers) and climate policies influencing your local area or economic sector or activity will be. This part will look a bit different depending on the aim of your project. If you chose to work with a spatial focus, you may use maps (strategic regional plans) to identify the most critical areas and objects. If you chose to work with an operational focus, you may wish to relate the drivers of change and climate policy to the main operations (goals) in your economic sector or activity.
- If you work with maps:
- Place the map(s) on the table.
- Think about what the major economic, social, demographic and technological implications might be for your area or specific sector, if the world were to change in this direction. Encourage the group participants to think silently and individually for 5—10 min.
- Discuss the major socio-economic implications in the group and their spatial implications. Try to mark on the map(s) the areas that would be specifically affected.
- If you chose an operational focus:
- Either the Process Leader prepares a list containing the major objectives of your operations or the group creates a list containing the major objectives of your operations.
- Think about what the major economic, social, demographic and technological implications might be for your operations, if the world were to change in this direction. Encourage the group participants to think silently and individually for 5—10 min.
- Discuss the major socio-economic implications in the group and their spatial implications. Try to agree about what parts of your operations areas that would be specifically affected.
Go further to Exercise II - Climatic stressor mapping